# Statistical analysis using Monte Carlo method (II)

In the previous post, some single examples of the Monte Carlo method were shown. In this post it will be deeply analyzed, making a statistical analysis on a more complex system, analyzing its output variables and studying the results so that they will be quite useful. The advantage of simulation is that it is possible to get a random generation of variables, and also a correlation between variables can be set, achieving different effects in the analysis of the system performance. Thus, any system not only can be analyzed statistically using a random generation of variables, but also this random generation can be linked in a batch analysis or failures in production and in a post-production recovery.

The circuits studied in the previous post were very simple circuits, allowing to see the allocation of random variables and their results when these random variables are integrated a more complex system. With this analysis, it is possible to check the performance and propose corrections which would limit statistically the variations in the final system.

In this case, the dispersive effect of the tolerances will be studied on one of the circuits where it is very difficult to achieve an stability in its features: an electronic filter. An electronic filter, passband type, will be designed and tuned to a fixed frequency, with a certain bandwidth in passband and stopband, and several statistical analysis will be done on it, to check its response with the device tolerances.

DESIGN OF THE BANDPASS FILTER

A bandpass filter design is done, with a 37,5MHz center frequency, 7MHz pass bandwidth (return losses ≥14dB) and a 19MHz stopband bandwidth (stopband attenuation >20dB). When the filter is calculating, three sections are got, and its schematic is

3-sections bandpass filter

With the calculated values of the components, standard values which can make the filter transfer function are found, and its frequency response is

Bandpass filter frequency response

where it is possible to check that the center frequency is 37.5 MHz, the return losses are lower than 14dB at ± 3.5Mhz of the center frequency, and the stopband width is 18,8MHz, with 8,5MHz from the left of the center frequency and 10,3MHz to the right of the center frequency.
Then, once the filter is designed, a first statistical analysis is done, considering that the capacitor tolerance is ± 5% and the inductors are adjustable. In addition, there is not any correlation between the random variables, being able to take an random value independently.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FILTER WITHOUT CORRELATION BETWEEN VARIABLES

As it could be seen in the previous post, when there are random variables there is an output dispersion, so limits to consider a valid filter must be defined, from these limits, to analyze its valid frequency response. Yield analysis is used. This is an analysis using the Monte Carlo algorithm that it allows  to check the performance or effectiveness of the design. To perform this analysis, the limits-for-validation specifications must be defined. The chosen specifications are return losses >13,5dB at 35÷40MHz, with a 2 MHzreduction in the passband width and an attenuation >20dB at frequencies ≤29MHz and ≥48MHz. By statistical analysis, it is got

Statistical analysis of the filter . Variables without correlation.

whose response is bad: only 60% of possible filters generated by variables with a ±5% tolerance could be considered valid. The rest would not be considered valid by a quality control, which would mean that 40% defective material should be returned to the production, to be reprocessed.

It can be checked in the graph that the return loss are the primarily responsible for this bad performance. What could it be done to improve it? In this case, there are 4 random variables. However, two capacitors have of the same value (15pF), and when they are assembled in a production process, usually belong to the same manufacturing batch. If these variables show no correlation, variables can take completely different values. When they are not correlated, the following chart is got

C1, C3 without correlation

However, when these assembled components belong to the same manufacturing batch, their tolerances vary always to the same direction, therefore there is correlation between these variables.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FILTER WITH CORRELATION BETWEEN VARIABLES

When the correlation is used, the influence of tolerances is decreased. In this case, it is not a totally random process, but manufacturing batches in which the variations happen. In this case, it is possible to put a correlation between the variables C1 and C3, which have the same nominal value and belong the same manufacturing batch, so now the correlation graph is

C1, C3 with correlation

where the variation trend in each batch is the same. Then, putting a correlation between the two variables allows studying the effective performance of the filter and get

Statistical analysis with correlation in C1, C3

that it seems even worse. But what happens really? It must be taken into account that the variable correlation has allowed analyzing complete batches, while in the previous analysis was not possible to discern the batches. Therefore, 26 successful complete manufacturing processes have been got, compared to the previous case that it was not possible to discern anything. Then, this shows that from 50 complete manufacturing processes, 26 processes would be successful.

However, 24 complete processes would have to be returned to production with the whole lot. And it remains really a bad result. But there is a solution: the post-production adjustment.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WITH POST-PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT

As it was said, at this point the response seems very bad, but remembering that the inductors had set adjustable. What happens now? Doing a new analysis, allowing at these variable to take values in ±10% over the nominal value, and setting the post-production optimization in the Monte Carlo analysis and voilà! Even with a very high defective value, it is possible to recover 96% of the filters within the valid values.

Statistical analysis with post-production optimization

So an improvement is got, because the analysis is showing that it is possible to recover almost all of the batches with the post-production adjustment, so this analysis allows showing not only the defective value but also the recovery posibilities.
It is possible to represent the variations of the inductors (in this case corresponding to the serial resonances) to analyze what is the sensitivity of the circuit to the more critical changes. This analysis allows to set an adjustment pattern to reduce the adjustment time that it should have the filter.

Analysis of the adjustment patterns of the serial resonance inductors

So, with this analysis, done at the same time design, it is possible to take decisions which set the patterns of manufacturing of the products and setting the adjustment patterns for the post-production, knowing previously the statistic response of the designed filter. This analysis is a very important resource before to validate any design.

CONCLUSIONS

In this post, a more grade in the possibilities of using Monte Carlo statistical analysis is shown, using statistical studies. The algorithm provides optimal results and allows setting conditions for various analysis and optimizing more the design. Doing a post-production adjustment, it is possible to get the recovery grade of the proposed design. In the next post, another example of the Monte Carlo method will be done that allows seeing more possibilities over the algorithm.

REFERENCES

1. Castillo Ron, Enrique, “Introducción a la Estadística Aplicada”, Santander, NORAY, 1978, ISBN 84-300-0021-6.
2. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Daniel, “Fundamentos de Estadística”, Madrid,  Alianza Editorial, 2001, ISBN 84-206-8696-4.
3. Kroese, Dirk P., y otros, “Why the Monte Carlo method is so important today”, 2014, WIREs Comp Stat, Vol. 6, págs. 386-392, DOI: 10.1002/wics.1314.
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# Statistical analysis using Monte Carlo method (I)

When any electronic device is designed, we can use several deterministic methods for calculating its main parameters. So, we can get the parameters that we measure physically in any device or system. These preliminary calculations allow the development and their results are usually agreed with the prediction. However, we know that everything we manufacture is always subject to tolerances. And these tolerances cause variations in the results that often can not be analyzed easily, without a powerful calculation application. In 1944, Newmann and Ulam developed a non-deterministic, statistical method called Monte Carlo. In the following blog post.  we are going to analyze the use of this powerful method for predicting possible tolerances in circuits, especially when they are manufactured industrially.

In any process, the output result is a function of the input variables. These variables generate a response which can be determined, both if the system is linear and if it is not linear. The relationship between the response and the input variables is called transfer function, and its knowledge allows us to get any result concerning the input excitation.

However, it must be taken in account that the input variables are random variables, with their own distribution function, and are subject to stochastic processes, although their behavior is predictable through the Theory of Probability. For example, when we make any measure, we get its average value and the error in which can be measured that magnitude. This allows to limit the environment in which it is correct and decide when the magnitude behaves incorrectly.

For many years, I have learned to successfully transform the results obtained by simulations in real physical results, with predictable behavior and I got valid conclusions, and I have noticed that in most cases the use of the simulation is reduced to get the desired result without studying the dependence of the variables in that result. However, most simulators have very useful statistical algorithms that, properly used, allow to get a series of data that the designer can use in the future, predicting any system behavior, or at least analyzing what it can happen.

However, these methods are not usually used. Either for knowledge lack of statistical patterns, or for ignorance of how these patterns can be used. Therefore, in these posts we shall analyze the Monte Carlo method on circuit simulations and we shall discover an important tool which is unknown to many simulator users.

DEVICES LIKE RANDOM VARIABLES

Electronic circuits are made by simple electronic devices, but they have a statistical behavior due to manufacturing. Device manufacturers usually show their nominal values and tolerances. Thus, a resistance manufacturer not only publishes its rating values and its dimensions. Tolerances, stress, temperature dependance, etc., are also published. These parameters provide important information, and propertly analyzed with a powerful calculation tool (such as a simulator), we can predict the behavior of any complex circuit.

In this post, we are going to analyze exclusively the error environment around the nominal value, in one resistor. In any resistor, the manufacturer defines its nominal value and its tolerance. We asume these values 1kΩ for the nominal value and ± 5% for its tolerance. It means the resistance value can be found between 950Ω and 1,05kΩ. In the case of a bipolar transistor, the current gain β could take a value between 100 and 600 (i.e. NXP BC817), which may be an important and uncontrollable variation of current collector. Therefore, knowing these data, we can analyze the statistical behavior of an electronic circuit through the Monte Carlo method.

First, let us look resistance: we have said that the resistance has a ± 5% tolerance. Then, we will analyze the resistor behavior with the Monte Carlo method, using a circuit simulator. A priori, we do not know the probability function, although most common is a Gaussian function, whose expression is well known

$f_{\mu,\sigma^2}(x)=\dfrac {1}{\sigma \sqrt {2 \pi}}e^{\dfrac {(x-\mu)^2}{\sigma^2}}$

being μ the mean and σ² the variance. Analyzing by the simulator, through Monte Carlo method and with 2000 samples, we can get a histogram of resistance value, like it is shown in the next figure

Histogram of the resistor

Monte Carlo algorithm introduces a variable whose value corresponds to a Gaussian distribution, but the values it takes are random. If these 2000 samples were taken in five different processes with 400 samples each one, we would still find a Gaussian tendency, but their distribution would be different

Gaussian distributions with different processes

Therefore, working properly with the random variables, we can get a complete study of the feasibility of any design and the sensitivity that each variable shows. In the next example, we are going to analyze the bias point of a bipolar transistor, whose β variation is between 100 and 600, being the average value 350 (β is considered a Gaussian distribution), feeding it with resistors with a nominal tolerance of ± 5% and studying the collector current variation using 100 samples.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF A BJT BEHAVIOR IN DC

Now, we are going to study the behavior of a bias circuit, with a bipolar transistor, like the next figure

Bias point circuit of a BJT

where the resistors have a ±5% tolerance and the transistor has a β variation between 100 and 600, with a nominal value of 350. Its bias point is  Ic=1,8mA, Vce=3,2V. Making a Monte Carlo analysis, with 100 samples, we can get the next result

BJT current distribution respect to the random variables

Seeing the graph form, we can check that the result converges to a Gaussian distribution, being the average value Ic=1,8mA and its tolerance, ±28%. Suppose now that we do the same sweep before processing, in several batches of 100 samples each one. The obtained result is

BJT current distribution respect several batches

where we can see that in each batch we get a graph which converges to a Gaussian distribution. In this case, the Gaussian distribution has an average value μ=1,8mA and a variance σ²=7%. Thus, we have been able to analyze each process not only like a global statistical analysis but also like a batch. Suppose now that β is a random variable with an uniform distribution function, between 100 and 600. By analyzing only 100 samples, the next graphic is got

Results with a BETA uniform distribution

and it can be seen that the current converges to an uniform distribution, increasing the current tolerance range and the probability at the ends. Therefore, we can also study the circuit behaviour when it shows different distribution functions for each variable.

Seeing that, with the Monte Carlo method, we are able to analyze any complex circuit behavior in terms of tolerances, in the same way it will help us to study how we could correct those results. Therefore, in the next posts we shall analyzed deeply this method, increasing the study of its potential and what we can be achieved with it.

CORRECTING THE TOLERANCES

In the simulated circuit, when we have characterized the transistor β like an uniform random variable, we have increased the probability into unwanted current values (at the ends). This is one of the most problematic features, not only on bipolar transistors but also on field effect transistor: the variations of their current ratios. This simple example let see what happens when we use a typical correction circuit for the β variation, like the classic polarization by emitter resistance.

Bias circuit by emitter resistance

Using this circuit and analyzing by Monte Carlo, we can compare its results with the analysis obtained in the previous case, but using 1000 samples. The result is

Results with both circuits

where we can check that the probability values have increased around 2mA, reducing the probability density at the low values of current and narrowing the distribution function. Therefore, the Monte Carlo method is a method that not only enables us to analyze the behavior of a circuit when subjected to a statistical, but also allow us to optimize our circuit and adjust it to the desired limit values. Used properly, it is a powerful calculation tool that will improve the knowledge of our circuits.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first post, we wish to begin a serie dedicated to Monte Carlo method. In it, we wanted to show the method and its usefulness. As we have seen in the examples, the use of Monte Carlo method provides very useful data, especially with the limitations and variations of the circuit we are analyzing if we know how they are characterized. On the other hand, it allows us to improve it using statistical studies, in addition to setting the standards for the verification of in any production process.

In the next posts we shall go more in depth on the method, by performing a more comprehensive method through the study of a specific circuit of one of my most recent projects, analyzing what the expected results and the different simulations that can be performed using the method of Monte Carlo, like the worst case, the sensitivity, and the post-production optimization.

REFERENCES

1. Castillo Ron, Enrique, “Introducción a la Estadística Aplicada”, Santander, NORAY, 1978, ISBN 84-300-0021-6.
2. Peña Sánchez de Rivera, Daniel, “Fundamentos de Estadística”, Madrid,  Alianza Editorial, 2001, ISBN 84-206-8696-4.
3. Kroese, Dirk P., y otros, “Why the Monte Carlo method is so important today”, 2014, WIREs Comp Stat, Vol. 6, págs. 386-392, DOI: 10.1002/wics.1314.